The outlook of the hottest demand is optimistic, a

2022-08-05
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The demand outlook is optimistic. There is still much room for crude oil above $90.

at the beginning of January, the crude oil price maintained a high-level oscillation pattern, and the price broke through the high point in 2010. This is mainly because the macroeconomic situation is relatively ideal, the economic data released by major economies are generally good, and the market is generally optimistic about the crude oil demand in 2011, supporting the higher price. Although the US dollar index had a strong rebound, the previous high resistance was obvious, which did not bring sustained pressure on oil prices. The author believes that the crude oil price will oscillate higher under the promotion of multiple positive factors

leading indicators show that the economic prospects of major economies are optimistic

euro zone, Japan, China The latest OECD comprehensive leading indicators of the United States are 101.37, 100.95, 100.64 and 1 digital display (LCD display 01.14, and the latest PMI indexes are 57.1, 48.3, 54.40 and 57.00 respectively. On the whole, compared with the previous period, the two leading indicators still maintain an upward trend, and both are above the dividing line of 100 for the OECD comprehensive leading indicators and 50 for the PMI index (except for the PMI index of Japan)

leading indicators of major economies have maintained a good upward trend recently. The steady upward trend of leading indicators indicates that the economic prospects of major economies are optimistic, and the steady growth of the overall economy is the key. Although in the short term, such economic indicators as unemployment rate and consumer price index may not be satisfactory, such indicators are lagging economic indicators, which reflect the changes in the economy more slowly. The so-called futures emphasizes the expectation of the future development of the subject matter. Therefore, the author believes that we should pay attention to the leading economic indicators, clarify the overall tone of future economic development, and based on the good performance of leading indicators of major economies, it is optimistic that the macroeconomic prospect ranks first in the national peer industry, which can provide a solid foundation for the rise of crude oil prices

the European debt crisis was suspended, and the rating agencies issued a warning on the US debt situation

Portugal passed a key market confidence test on January 12, and successfully auctioned two kinds of government bonds. Portugal sold a total of 1.25 billion euros of government bonds at the auction, realizing the maximum auction value originally planned; On January 13, Spain successfully auctioned its national debt, with an issuance scale of 3billion euros, which is at the high end of the proposed issuance scale range of 2billion to 3billion euros, indicating that investors are full of confidence in the ability of Portugal and Spain to improve their financial conditions. On January 14, Moody's and standard & Poor's, two major international credit rating agencies, issued a warning to the United States about its credit rating and expressed concern about the deterioration of its financial situation

for the US dollar index, this situation is equivalent to the internal and external pressure at the same time - the European debt crisis is an important subject for the early rise of the US dollar index. Although the machines of the external machinery companies are almost producing such conical vertical bags, the periodic relief of the European debt crisis will naturally be drastic and make the US dollar index lose this part of the rising momentum; At the same time, if the U.S. debt problem is further deepened and the credit rating is lowered by rating agencies, the dollar will bear certain selling pressure in the foreign exchange market

therefore, a question arises: will the deepening of the US debt problem weaken the momentum of its economic recovery? The author believes that this will not happen. Because the debt problem of the United States largely comes from its active fiscal policy, and the reason why the U.S. government pursues the active fiscal policy is that the U.S. government believes that this is an effective way to stimulate the U.S. economic recovery. Therefore, even if the U.S. debt problem deepens, the weak dollar and the continuously stimulated economy will support higher oil prices

U.S. stocks enter the earnings season, which may give momentum to the rise of crude oil

recently, Dow Jones Index constituent stocks Intel and JPMorgan Chase will publish earnings, and some heavyweights including apple and Citigroup will also publish earnings later. Some analysts believe that the profits of these companies may be better than analysts' expectations, which may support the performance of the company's share price

from the historical performance, the trend of international crude oil price is largely affected by the economic situation of the United States, the world's largest crude oil consumer. As an "economic barometer", the U.S. stock market also has a high correlation with crude oil price. According to the prediction of professional institutions, some heavyweight US stock companies will have big "surprises" in their financial reports. If the expectation is realized, it will pull the US stock market higher as a whole and boost the oil price

at this stage, the supply-demand side provides support for oil prices

eia data released last week showed that the latest decline in U.S. crude oil inventory was higher than the market expectation. Despite the decline in capacity utilization of smelters, the increase in gasoline and heating oil inventory was higher than the market expectation. EIA data show that as of the week of January 7, the US crude oil inventory decreased by 2.15 million barrels to 333.11 million barrels, which is estimated to decrease by 1.1 million barrels; Gasoline inventories in the United States increased by 5.08 million barrels a week, and analysts expect an increase of 1.8 million barrels; The distillate oil inventory, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 2.65 million barrels, higher than the increase of 1million barrels expected by analysts

from the perspective of supply and demand, the market has reached a consensus to a certain extent that the demand for crude oil in 2011 will increase, which is also supported by the crude oil inventory data, and the operating range of crude oil prices will be raised. Although OPEC has a certain scale of reserve capacity, it has no release plan for the time being, and the supply is relatively stable. Therefore, there is no pressure to increase the supply above the oil price in the short term

large funds are optimistic about the prospects of global energy demand

Merrill Lynch believes that in view of the strong demand growth of OECD and emerging markets and the reduction of OPEC's surplus capacity, the crude oil market in 2011 remained in tight balance. WTI and Brent oil prices are closer to the demand value of China's textile fiber market, which will reach $87/barrel and $88/barrel respectively, and hit a high of $100/barrel at some time in the year. Morgan Stanley believes that at present, the demand for crude oil has reached an unprecedented high, while the global inventory is shrinking, and OPEC's remaining capacity is also declining. By 2012, it will fall to the level of 2007/2008. It is expected that the average price of crude oil in 2011 and 2012 will be $100/barrel and $105/barrel respectively

in general, the good economic prospects of major economies will become the basis for the operation of international oil prices. The tight supply and demand side is the internal cause of the rise in international oil prices, while the weak dollar and the strength of US stocks will become the external driving factors of international oil prices and play a role in helping the rise. Therefore, the author believes that the upward trend of international oil prices will be further consolidated, and there is still a large upward space above $90/barrel

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